The most important match of Wednesday evening — and potentially the most decisive fixture of the entire Premier League season. Arsenal lead with four points over Manchester City, who hold a game in hand. A City win reduces the gap to two points. A draw or defeat on Wednesday would hand the title to Arsenal almost certainly — Arteta's side could be crowned champions as early as Monday 18 May with a win over already-relegated Burnley.

City arrive from a crucial 3-0 win over Brentford on Saturday, with goals from Doku, Haaland and Marmoush. But Guardiola's reported shout of "Come on you Irons!" in the Etihad corridors yielded nothing — Arsenal won 1-0 at West Ham on Sunday in a victory preserved by a controversial VAR decision that disallowed a West Ham goal in the final minutes. Guardiola told the press: "What I learned in my career as a manager is that what you can't control, forget it. Do better what we didn't do well this season. Arrive in a better position to fight for the Premier League — and we are still fighting." Crystal Palace arrive at the Etihad following a 2-2 draw with Everton on Sunday — a result that confirmed their mathematical survival. Manager Oliver Glasner, who will leave the club at the end of the season, praised his side's "enormous display." Palace are also preparing for the UEFA Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano on 27 May.

City are favourites at 65% according to the model. Gvardiol, Khusanov and Rodri are all unavailable through injury. Crystal Palace are without Nketiah, Doucouré, Guessand and Borna Sosa. Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between City and Palace have produced three or more goals. In ten of the last eleven games at the Etihad, the net has been broken at least three times. City also hold a remarkable record of 36 consecutive home games unbeaten on Wednesdays in the Premier League. Predicted lineup City (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; M. Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, O'Reilly; B. Silva, N. González; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland.

The night PSG can crown themselves French champions for the fifth consecutive season. PSG lead Ligue 1 with 73 points from 32 games — Lens are second with 67 points. PSG need just a single point tonight to be mathematically confirmed as champions. A Lens win would keep the race theoretically alive, but PSG's superior goal difference means even that may not be enough.

PSG have already secured their place in the Champions League final — and the Ligue 1 title would be the crowning piece of an extraordinary season. They arrive having won their last four league matches, including 3-0 wins over Nantes and Angers and a 1-0 win over Brest. They have also kept three consecutive clean sheets away from Paris. Lens, however, are formidable at the Bollaert-Delelis — they have won 13 of their last 14 home Ligue 1 matches. They arrive from a crucial 1-0 win over Nantes, with young Mezian Mesloub the unlikely hero. They are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions.

The problem for Lens is the recent head-to-head: PSG are unbeaten in their last seven meetings against Lens across all competitions. The Parisians have lost just twice away from home in 15 Ligue 1 fixtures, and their vast technical quality — even with rotation — makes them clear favourites. For Lens, the absence of Saud Abdulhamid (red card suspension) and Jonathan Gradit (leg fracture) are significant blows. PSG carry physical concerns for Hakimi, Zaïre-Emery, Pacho and Nuno Mendes. Désiré Doué scored the only goal against Brest on Sunday. Predicted lineup PSG (4-3-3): Marin; Mayulu, Zabarnyi, Beraldo, T. Hernandez; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia.

Barcelona arrive in Vitoria as confirmed La Liga champions — the title was sealed at El Clásico on Sunday. Hansi Flick can now manage his squad freely in the remaining rounds, with one eye on a historic target: reaching 100 points at the end of the season, which would match the all-time La Liga record held jointly by Mourinho's Real Madrid (2012) and Tito Vilanova's Barcelona (2013).

For Alavés, the situation is one of desperate survival: they are 18th, one point behind Girona who hold a game in hand, and every point is vital to stay in the top flight. They come from a 1-1 draw with Elche and a 2-4 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao. Only one win in their last six matches — a worrying collapse of form at the worst possible moment. Barcelona have the best attack in La Liga with 91 goals scored and the best defence with just 31 conceded. They are unbeaten in 17 consecutive La Liga matches against Alavés, having scored in 20 straight meetings against them. The model gives Barcelona an 88% probability of victory.

A mid-table La Liga encounter with little at stake for either club. Getafe and Mallorca are both comfortable in their positions without relegation fears or European ambitions pulling at them in these final rounds.

Historically, matches between these two sides tend to be low-scoring and tactically cautious — the O2.5 signal of 33.3% and BTTS of 33.3% are among the lowest of the entire Wednesday programme, reflecting the expectation of a tight, organised encounter.

The most statistically compelling fixture of the Scottish Wednesday night programme. Rangers at home in Ibrox against a Hibernian side that always brings intensity and rivalry to this fixture. The O2.5 signal of 83.3% and BTTS of 77.8% are the highest of any Scottish Premiership match this midweek — reflecting a recent head-to-head history of open, high-scoring encounters at Ibrox.

Rangers will be looking to assert home dominance in a fixture that carries genuine rivalry weight regardless of the table position. Hibernian arrive with the motivation to produce a result against one of the Scottish game's most historic clubs.

Celtic travel to Fir Park for one of the tougher away fixtures in the Scottish Premiership. The model gives Celtic 62% on the road, but Fir Park is always an intense, physical environment that makes life difficult for visiting sides regardless of their quality.

Celtic arrive looking to close out the season with consistency. The BTTS signal of 61.1% reflects the expectation that Motherwell will create enough to score even against a well-organised Celtic defence.

Hearts at home in the historic Tynecastle Park against Falkirk. The model favours the hosts clearly (68%) in an evening where Hearts carry the full advantage of home ground, crowd and quality.

The BTTS signal of 61.1% suggests Falkirk will find a way to contribute offensively despite the quality gap — a compact, competitive match is expected rather than a routine home performance.