UEFA Champions League — Semi-Final First Leg — 28 April 2026 Preview
28 April 2026
If the quarter-finals provided drama, the semi-finals offer something rarer — a match that could justifiably be called an early final. Both PSG and Bayern have scored exactly 38 Champions League goals this season — more than any other club in the competition. The winner is widely expected to be the favourite for the Budapest final.
PSG eliminated Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate and then dismantled Liverpool 4-0 over two legs. Bayern beat Bayer Leverkusen, swept aside Real Madrid 6-4 on aggregate after a stunning Bernabéu victory, and have already sealed the Bundesliga title four games early — chasing a treble. Both sides have scored exactly 38 Champions League goals this season, more than any other club in the competition.
PSG arrive as defending champions on the verge of their fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title, with a six-point lead over Lens allowing them to focus entirely on Europe. Their defensive record in the knockout phase has been exceptional — two clean sheets across both Liverpool legs, with Safonov and Marquinhos producing commanding performances.
Bayern arrive as arguably the most in-form side in Europe. Their last league outing was a remarkable 4-3 comeback at Mainz, having trailed 0-3 at half-time — the kind of resilience and attacking firepower that makes them uniquely dangerous.
PSG face a historical obstacle: Bayern have won their last five consecutive Champions League meetings against the Parisians, who scored just one goal across those five encounters. Bayern's 2-1 win at the Parc des Princes in the League Phase — with Luis Díaz scoring twice — is the most recent data point. PSG have lost nine of their 15 Champions League games against Bayern — their most defeats against any opponent in the competition. However, PSG point to the Club World Cup in July, where they beat Bayern 2-0 in the quarter-finals. A PSG win here would be their 100th Champions League victory — only the fourth club to reach that milestone.
The goals records are extraordinary: PSG have scored 2+ goals in each of their last eight knockout-stage Champions League games — a joint record equalling Barcelona between 2015 and 2016, ironically also under Luis Enrique. Bayern's 11 of 12 Champions League matches this season produced over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.2 per game. PSG average 2.7 per game in Europe. Team news: Vitinha is a major doubt (heel). Désiré Doué and Nuno Mendes should feature after hobbling off against Liverpool but appearing at Angers. Fabián Ruiz played 45 minutes returning from a knee injury and is likely to start. For Bayern: Guerreiro, Gnabry, Lennart Karl and Bischof are all out. Vincent Kompany is suspended for the first leg.
What to watch
With Kompany banned from the touchline, Bayern's squad leadership becomes critical — Kimmich's influence and Kane's finishing will be the axis around which their performance is built. Kane has scored 12 UCL goals this season — the most by an English player in a single European Cup campaign — and has scored in five consecutive knockout appearances. For PSG, Kvaratskhelia (8 goals, 5 assists in 13 UCL games), Dembélé and Doué were recruited for exactly this kind of night. Both sides have been built to score and both have the quality to frustrate — a 2-1 or 2-2 first leg leaving everything open for Munich is the tie's most likely story.
Statistical signal
O2.5 77.8% | BTTS 77.8%