A fixture with something riding on it from both sides — and a subplot that makes Rayo's situation particularly fascinating. Valencia sit 12th in La Liga with 42 points from 11 wins, nine draws and 15 defeats. They head into Thursday on the back of a morale-boosting 1-0 win at Athletic Club, with Umar Sadiq's introduction off the bench proving decisive. At the Mestalla, however, they have posted just seven wins from 17 home games — not the fortress they need at this stage of the season.

Rayo Vallecano sit 10th with 43 points — one point and two places above their hosts — and have just accomplished something extraordinary: booking their spot in the UEFA Conference League final against Crystal Palace, after a composed 2-0 aggregate victory over Strasbourg. The achievement is all the more remarkable because it is only Rayo's second ever season in European competition. The question now is how much Rayo's head is already in the Conference League final. Iñigo Pérez may rotate to protect key players, and away form has been a problem — just four wins from 17 away league games. But even a rotated Rayo have enough quality to frustrate a Valencia side that has won just once against them in the last seven years.

The head-to-head record is defined by draws — four of the last seven meetings have ended level, and under 2.5 goals has been the outcome in six consecutive encounters between these sides across all competitions. Valencia are without Copete (meniscus), Foulquier (knee) and Correia (hamstring). Rayo miss Isi Palazón (suspended) and Luis Felipe (hamstring).

A survival six-pointer on one side, a dead rubber on the other — which is what makes this fixture so dangerous for the visitors. Girona are winless in five consecutive league matches and have slipped into the relegation zone. Michel's side have conceded in defeats to Betis, Valencia and Mallorca, and dropped points against a tired Rayo side fresh from European duty. Their main attacking threat is further weakened by the season-ending injury to Vladyslav Vanat.

Real Sociedad, by contrast, have already secured their key season objective — a Europa League place via Copa del Rey glory — which removes virtually all pressure from Thursday's trip to Montilivi. Under Pellegrino Matarazzo, the Basques are winding down the campaign, testing combinations and resting key players. Their winless La Liga streak has stretched to five games, with defeats to Sevilla and Getafe and a draw with Alavés. Orri Oskarsson is suspended and Gonçalo Guedes is injured — two of their most dangerous attacking outlets are absent.

In 15 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, eight have ended in draws. Girona have won just two of those 15 encounters — a record that historically works against the home side despite the obvious motivation gap on Thursday night. The dynamic is stark: Girona fight for their Primera División lives while Real Sociedad have nothing to prove. On paper that should favour the home team — but a Sociedad side with no pressure can be a loose, dangerous opponent capable of anything.

The heaviest mismatch of the Thursday card — but one loaded with emotion at the Bernabéu. Real Madrid come into this on the back of a 0-2 home defeat to Barcelona in El Clásico on Sunday, a result that officially ended their title hopes and confirmed a second consecutive trophy-less season. Despite the disappointment, Madrid sit second in the table with an eight-point cushion over Villarreal — a win here would mathematically seal second place.

At home this season, Madrid have been formidable — 14 wins, one draw and just two defeats — and recent matches have been high-scoring. Both teams have scored in eight of their last ten games involving Real Madrid, and the home side has scored first in five of their last six. Oviedo, promoted from the Segunda División, arrive at the Bernabéu as one of the stories of the La Liga season — a historic club making their top-flight return after years away. For their supporters, a trip to the Bernabéu is a moment to savour regardless of the result. For Madrid, this is a chance to give the squad a meaningful home send-off before a summer of reflection and rebuild.

The model gives Madrid 64% — a reflection of the quality gap but also of a home side with something to prove after the Clásico humiliation. Oviedo have nothing to lose and everything to enjoy. Vinícius Júnior — one of the few consistent performers down the stretch — will be eager to finish his Bernabéu season on a personal high.