The reverse of Tuesday's fixture at the Chaudron — this time at the Allianz Riviera on the French Riviera. Nice are overwhelming favourites (72%) at home against a Saint-Étienne side who will make this a difficult away trip regardless of their mid-table standing.

The statistical signal is notably higher than the first leg: O2.5 55.6% compared to 44.4% on Tuesday — Nice's attacking home style drives that difference. The Allianz Riviera setup encourages a more open, forward-thinking approach than the Chaudron, which benefits goal expectation.

A promotion playoff encounter in the Italian second tier with genuine stakes. Monza at home (51% win probability) against Catanzaro — a match that the data suggests will produce goals at both ends, one of the higher BTTS signals across Friday's card.

Playoff football in Serie B carries its own intensity regardless of the aggregate score — both sides tend to commit forward, and the BTTS signal of 55.6% reflects the historical pattern between these clubs in competitive knockout encounters. A place in Serie A hangs in the balance.